Making A Difference for the Next Generation
Answers to commonly asked questions
Q: What is ETRPA?
A: The El Toro Reuse Planning Authority was formed in March of 1994 and was the first official entity established to address the reuse of MCAS/El Toro. In November of 1994, Measure A was passed amending the County general plan to designate MCAS/El Toro as an international commercial airport, the County withdrew from ETRPA in January 1995. ETRPA is now a coalition of seven cities Irvine, Lake Forest, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Hills, Laguna Beach, Mission Viejo, and Dana Point.
Q: Where does the County's planning process for El Toro reuse now stand?
A: A slim 3 2 majority of the Board of Supervisors favors locating an international commercial airport at El Toro, yet a majority want County staff to also evaluate a non aviation use. The County CEO formerly ran John Wayne Airport and has vigorously pursued an international commercial airport at El Toro. Virtually all planning decisions made by the County staff have been driven by the presumed inevitability of an airport. However, if an airport use is denied by a federal or state agency, or if an airport is unfeasible because of a fatal flaw, a non-aviation alternative can be considered and may be implemented. In October of 1997, the Board of Supervisors, acting as the Local Reuse Authority (LRA), gave ETRPA the responsibility for planning the official non-aviation alternative to a commercial airport.
Q: What is The Millennium Plan?
The Millennium Plan is a broad-based 20-year strategy to transform the military base property into a vibrant urban center which will enhance the quality of life for all Orange County residents. The plan emphasizes high technology business development through a synthesis of education/research and technology complemented by generous open space, parks, recreation, sports and cultural uses. The plan is built around four districts: Education, Research & Technology; Arts & Culture; Sports & Entertainment and Habitat Preserve.
Q: How will the project be financed?
A: The short answer is that The Millennium Plan will be an economic boon for the people of Orange County and the county coffers. The Millennium Plan is designed to be largely self-financed since the revenue generated is far greater than the development costs. However, some methods of financing large-scale projects could enhance the overall benefits of the plan. These methods include bond sales, development fees, assessment districts and private equity investment as well as other means.
The Millennium Plan will generate $1.08 billion in revenue from land sales and building leases, while infrastructure development, maintenance and operations over a 20 year period will cost $683 million, resulting in a net positive cash flow of $398 million to the reuse authority.
Plans for exactly how the property would be conveyed and financed require a dialogue with the County and the military to answer specific questions about how best to proceed. The Millennium Plan is extremely flexible and would remain profitable regardless of how it is financed.
Q: How will the property be conveyed to the County?
A: The property could be conveyed to the County from the Navy in one or a combination of three ways:
1. A portion will be considered public benefit and will be conveyed at essentially no cost. This would include the habitat reserve, park areas, college campus, arts center etc. This accounts for more than half the property.
2. Property that will generate jobs can be conveyed at some negotiated rate below fair market value. This is called an economic benefit conveyance.
3. A portion of the property will be conveyed at fair market value. These are, for the most part, residential, commercial, office, hotel and industrial sites. Developers will pay the full cost of acquiring and improving these properties.
Q: What will the project earn for the County government at build out?
A: The total output by year 2020 is expected to be $10.4 to $12.9 billion annually. This represents revenue that will all be put into the local economy. The total revenue to the County from property tax, sales tax and other fees is $17 million annually. The net revenue to the County, after all services to operate and maintain the property including fire, and police service is $8.2 million, per year.
Q: How can you be sure your economic projections are accurate?
A: ETRPA planners used the same economic models the County of Orange used to project revenues and jobs generated from the site in the County’s EIR. Our demographics are based on the County’s adopted forecast, OCP which was modified in July of 1997. The fiscal analysis is based on the County’s updated and adopted fiscal model. The economic benefit analysis is based on the Minnesota Implan Group (MIG) model, an industry standard and the same model as the County used in its EIR.
Q: How will the project, especially the open areas, be maintained?
A: The maintenance of the open space is offset by the revenues generated by other land uses resulting in a net positive cash flow to the County. Some portions of the open space, such as golf courses or community parks may be maintained through private development or user fees.
Q: Has any firm or organization expressed an interest in developing a college campus, technology center or other use as described in your plan?
A: Yes. We have had tremendous interest in the property from a variety of sources. In addition, every local, regional and national economic forecast predicts the continued strength of the Orange County real estate market and economy in general, far into the future.
In 1995 ETRPA contracted with the Washington D.C.-based research firm, TGB, to querie more than 1,000 companies nationwide regarding interest in non aviation development at El Toro. Various business sectors expressed interest in the property, some desiring to move to the property immediately. Businesses interested in relocation included a number of industrial uses, including theme parks, movie studios, a media production facility, various entertainment venues and a tennis center. All of this information has been compiled in a draft report titled “Target Entities Analysis” which is available from ETRPA staff.
Q: Don’t stadiums and convention centers require substantial public subsidy to build and operate?
A: We will not build either a stadium or convention center if it cannot be done entirely by private funding and user fees. The Millennium Plan is market driven, and as such can take advantage of market factors over time to develop the stadium and convention center in various configurations and sizes to maximize the use of private investment and expand only as demand dictates.
Q: Removing the runways is said to be extremely expensive, and potentially hazardous. How can this plan generate profit with such a huge built-in liability?
A: The cost of removing the runways is factored into the overall cost of the project. Removing the runways is estimated to cost $24 million, however, contractors say they would pay approximately $14 million to crush and recycle the concrete into gravel that can be used for new road construction on site. This leaves a net cost of removal at $10 million, which would be more than covered by revenues generated by the project. As to potential hazards, the Marine Corps said that they will be responsible for the removal and remediation of hazardous materials.
Q: Can’t you have all the things The Millennium Plan offers plus an airport?
A: No. First of all, the County’s non aviation plan will be handicapped by the noise and pollution from jets flying overhead every 3 minutes, 24 hours a day. The open space, parks, college campus, and commercial areas the County is contemplating will be significantly impacted operating under these circumstances.
With The Millennium Plan, more than half the property becomes an economic engine driving technology based companies that will stimulate the economy in the future. This incubator for entrepreneurship and education is balanced with open space, including a 900+ acre habitat reserve and more than 2,000 acres in total park and recreational space.
Q: Are there lawsuits seeking to block an airport at El Toro?
A: Yes. ETRPA and an independent citizens organization, Taxpayers for Responsible Planning, have each filed suits challenging the legitimacy of the County's El Toro Environmental Impact Report. Superior Court Judge Judith McConnell has ruled that the EIR is severely deficient because it understates the impact of pollution, traffic and environmental effects of a major airport. The judge was sharply critical of the County's planning process. Though the court most recently ruled not to invalidate the County's EIR, Judge McConnell reiterated that the County's EIR is flawed and revisions must be made and recirculated. ETRPA recently appealed the decision over a concern that the county’s planning process relies on an invalid EIR.
Q: Are airline pilots for or against the airport at El Toro?
A: 1. Unions representing 53,000 airline pilots have taken a position formally opposing easterly takeoffs at El Toro, which represents 70% of the takeoffs in the county’s most recent plan.
2. In a related issue, retired FAA official Donald Segner has written to the new FAA administrator raising a series of safety related questions and concerns about the viability of a commercial airport at El Toro. He also challenged local FAA staff for their apparent support of the airport plan despite problems meeting and in some cases violating FAA standards.
3. Susan Kurland, the FAA Associate Administrator for Airports, wrote at the request of FAA Executive Director Jane Garvey stating that the FAA has no position on an airport at El Toro, and will not take a position until the County submits a final airport plan.
Q: Where does the business community stand on the airport issue?
A: The business community is as divided on the airport issue as is the general population. The special interests that control the Orange County Business Council and were actively involved in placing Measure A on the ballot, are supporting the County’s efforts to build an airport. However, even the Business Council has been extremely critical of the County's closed planning process. Furthermore, the Business Council's stance has also been criticized by many of its members who are either neutral or opposed to an airport at El Toro. The Orange County Business Coalition, founded by a number of high tech companies such as Rainbow Technologies and Western Digital, are staunchly anti airport citing a lack of need and the negative impact on the environment which would harm their ability to attract top talent to their companies.
Q: Doesn't passage of Measure A and defeat of Measure S indicate unqualified support for an airport at MCAS/El Toro?
A: No. Measure A, which barely passed in 1994 after a high priced campaign in support of the initiative, was waged by pro airport special interests. Both initiatives offered an airport as the only alternative at a time when the Orange County economy was in the middle of a severe recession and was suffering from a devastating bankruptcy.
Recent public opinion surveys have shown that if an election were held today, a non aviation alternative would win over an aviation one. Many citizens have since re evaluated their opinions of County government as well as the County's role in recommending a use for MCAS/El Toro. An independent survey released in January showed that only 30 percent of voters approved of the County's handling of the reuse planning of MCAS/El Toro and 66 percent believed County staff could not be trusted in handling El Toro reuse issue. Additionally, 69 percent believed the County should be spending its money trying to solve other problems, like crime and traffic congestion, rather than trying to convert El Toro into an international commercial airport.
Q: Won't an aviation alternative for the reuse of MCAS/El Toro create substantially greater economic benefits than a non aviation use?
A: Not necessarily. The economic numbers the county has released are based on their EIR which contemplates a 38 Million Air Passengers per year (MAP) airport. However, the Board of Supervisors (LRA) has directed staff to plan a smaller, dual airport system including the continued operation of John Wayne Airport. Projections of economic benefits for an aviation use of MCAS/El Toro have been greatly exaggerated in an effort to manufacture support for an airport. The Millennium Plan will create approximately 50,000 high paying jobs on site and more than 100,000 jobs County wide. In comparison, airports generate many lower paying, shorter term jobs.
Pro airport officials are also gambling that airline carriers will sign up as soon as an airport is built. However, no carriers have committed to use a proposed airport at El Toro. In fact, many newly constructed airports around the nation are grossly underutilized because carriers are not opting to move from other nearby facilities or the fees are too high. In the face of these realities around the nation, Orange County staff continues to make promises that it may not be able to keep.
Q: What are the differences between The Millennium Plan and the City of Irvine’s plan for the portion of the base in Irvine?
A: The Millennium Plan was developed in close cooperation with the City of Irvine.
Q: How can we keep revenues from leaving Orange County for other airports?
A: In the past 50 years, Orange County has been among the national leaders in economic growth, but consistently paying more in taxes to the state than we receive in revenues. Maintaining our strong economic base is not dependent on expanding regional air traffic. In fact, we believe it may actually diminish the County’s overall economic base by sending high paying/high quality companies and jobs to more desirable locations.
Q: Is the proposed clean-up of toxic sites on the base compatible with the uses described in The Millennium Plan?
A: Yes.
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to the Millennium Plan Summary and News Release
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