Opinions Concerning El Toro Airport

Orange County residents feel the same now as they did a year ago about the county government’s proposal to transform the closed El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport: Half oppose it and about four in 10 favor it. Residents of the North County are equally divided on the airport issue (44% to 44%), but South County residents overwhelmingly oppose an El Toro international airport (76% to 19%). Among the voters of Orange County, 56 percent oppose the airport plan, 36 percent favor it, and 8 percent are undecided.

The county's residents also feel the same now as a year ago about how the Board of Supervisors is handling the airport issue: Half (49%) disapprove, while one in four approve. Disapproval is much higher than approval in the North County (42% to 27%) as well as the South County (71% to 17%). Among voters, 55 percent disapprove and only 24 percent approve of the job the supervisors have done.

The recent proposal to reduce the number of annual passengers from 28 million to 18 million does not generate more support for the proposed El Toro airport: 54 percent oppose and 36 percent would favor an El Toro airport if there were a reduction of 10-million passengers annually. Both North County residents (46% opposed and 42% in favor) and South County residents (76% opposed and 19% in favor) are as opposed to this idea as to the idea of the airport in general. Among voters, 34 percent are in favor and 58 percent are opposed to a reduced-passenger airport proposal.

In contrast, there is considerable support for a citizens’ initiative that would authorize only non-aviation uses, including a large park, for the El Toro Marine Air Base: 62 percent of residents would vote yes and 31 percent would vote no. Supporters greatly outnumber opponents in both the North County (57% to 36%) and the South County (79% to 17%). Among voters, 61 percent would vote "yes" on the initiative and 34 percent would vote "no" if the election were held today.
 
 

The Orange County Survey is a special edition of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which is directed by Mark Baldassare, a senior fellow at the Public Policy Institute of California, with research assistance from Lisa Cole and Eric McGhee. The survey was conducted in collaboration with the University of California, Irvine; however, the survey methodology and questions and the content of this report were solely determined by Mark Baldassare.

The findings of this survey are based on a telephone survey of 2,004 Orange County adult residents interviewed from August 20 to August 31, 2001. Interviewing took place on weekend days and weekday nights, using a computer-generated random sample of telephone numbers, ensuring that both listed and unlisted telephone numbers were called. All telephone exchanges in Orange County were eligible for calling. Telephone numbers in the survey sample were called up to five times to increase the likelihood of reaching eligible households. Once a household was reached, an adult respondent (18 or older) was randomly chosen for interviewing by using the "last birthday method" to avoid biases in age and gender. Each interview took an average of 20 minutes to complete. Interviewing was conducted in English or Spanish.

We used recent U.S. Census and state figures to compare the demographic characteristics of the survey sample with characteristics of Orange County's adult population. The survey sample was closely comparable to the census and state figures. The survey data in this report were statistically weighted to account for any demographic differences.

The sampling error for the total sample of 2,004 adults is +/- 2 percent at the 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, the results will be within 2 percentage points of what they would be if all Orange County adults were interviewed. The sampling error for subgroups is larger. Sampling error is just one type of error to which surveys are subject. Results may also be affected by factors such as question wording, question order, and survey timing. Throughout the report, we refer to two geographic regions. North County refers to cities and communities north of the 55 Freeway, including Anaheim, Orange, Villa Park, La Habra, Brea, Buena Park, Fullerton, Placentia, Yorba Linda, La Palma, Cypress, Los Alamitos, Rossmoor, Seal Beach, Westminster, Midway City, Stanton, Fountain Valley, Huntington Beach, Santa Ana, Garden Grove, Tustin, Tustin Foothills, and Costa Mesa. South County refers to cities and communities south of the 55 Freeway, including Newport Beach, Irvine, Lake Forest, Newport Coast, Aliso Viejo, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Mission Viejo, Portola Hills, Rancho Santa Margarita, Foothill Ranch, Coto de Caza, Trabuco, Laguna Beach, Dana Point, San Clemente, Capistrano Beach, and San Juan Capistrano. In the analysis of questions on the proposed El Toro airport, we include Newport Beach in the North County.

We also present results for non-Hispanic whites (referred to in the tables as "whites"), Latinos, and Asians because each group accounts for a substantial number of the county’s adult population. We also contrast the opinions of Democrats and Republicans with "other" or "independent" registered voters. This third category includes those who are registered to vote as "decline to state" as well as a fewer number who say they are members of other political parties.

In some cases, we compare the Orange County Survey responses to responses in the 1982-2000 Orange County Annual Surveys at the University of California, Irvine, the PPIC Statewide Surveys, and national surveys by the University of Michigan and CBS/New York Times.