THOMAS W. WILSON
CHAIRMAN
ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF SUPERVISORS
February 19, 2003
Mr. Rich Macias, Manager
Aviation and Environmental Planning
SCAG
818 West Seventh Street, 12th Floor
Los Angeles, CA 90017-3435
Dear Mr. Macias:
In a letter dated January 15, 2003, Alan. L. Murphy, Director of John Wayne
Airport, responded to SCAG’s Aviation Task Force inquiry regarding Orange
County’s forecast aviation demand and how the County expects to meet that
demand. I am writing to provide some additional information and
to comment on the points made by Mr. Murphy regarding Orange County’s aviation
demand and capacity issues.
As it relates to Orange County’s aviation demand, Mr. Murphy refers SCAG
to documents exclusively prepared for the then proposed El Toro International
Airport. The four documents referred to by Mr. Murphy were released
by the MCAS El Toro Master Development Program Office whose charge was to
plan and implement a 28.8 MAP airport at El Toro. From my perspective,
those documents were prepared by consultants hired by the El Toro Master
Development Office with the fundamental purpose of justifying an airport
at El Toro. Considering the highly political nature of the reuse planning
process for the former MCAS El Toro at that time, I would caution SCAG about
the validity of those figures. The Airport System Master Plan (ASMP,
October 2001) allocated 28.8 MAP capacity to El Toro and specifically stated
that if El Toro were built, the demand for John Wayne Airport would decrease
by more than 35% to 5.4 MAP. As stated in Mr. Murphy’s letter, just
recently, the JWA settlement agreement was extended to 2015 in which the
total maximum passenger cap at JWA was increased to 10.8 MAP or 100% from
what was included in the ASMP.
As you are aware, throughout the contentious reuse planning process for El
Toro, many reputable authorities questioned the validity of the demand and
capacity figures released by both the MCAS El Toro Master Development Program
Office and SCAG for Orange County. EIR 573, including documents referred
to by Mr. Murphy, were challenged by the El Toro Reuse Planning Authority
(ETRPA). The County recently settled that lawsuit without responding to points
raised by ETRPA, including those challenging the demand and capacity issues.
While I understand Mr. Murphy’s reference to County-generated documents on
Orange County’s aviation demand, the fact is that numerous experts in the
field of aviation planning have questioned the validity of forecast figures
contained in those documents. I believe that it is important for SCAG
to consider other sources that offer differing perspectives and analyses,
now that a new and hopefully improved aviation planning process has begun
in the region. I would recommend that SCAG review comments offered by ETRPA,
various Orange County cities and individuals on Draft EIR 563, Draft EIR
573, and SCAG 2001 RTP EIR as they relate to Orange County’s aviation demand
and capacity issues.
Furthermore, since the release of the County-generated documents for El Toro,
many events have changed the regional and national outlook on aviation.
The unfortunate tragedy of September 11th and the current economic climate
have cast a shadow of doubt on the once linear and exponential approach to
forecasting passenger demand both for domestic and international markets.
As it relates to aviation capacity, I have always been highly skeptical about
the legitimacy of allocating aviation capacity based on county boundary lines.
As you are well aware, the Inland Empire has become increasingly vocal in
promoting the development and expansion of its airports. In addition
to the fact that the Inland Empire is the fastest growing area in our region
with a positive economic outlook, the Inland Empire airports are also well-positioned
to absorb a large percentage of future regional aviation passenger and cargo
demand.
Mr. Murphy’s letter does not emphasize that since the establishment of the
8.4 MAP passenger cap at JWA in 1990, JWA has not yet reached that limit.
Even during the period of high economic and population growth in Orange County
and in much less uncertain times, JWA served 7.9 million annual passengers.
Based on the new settlement, JWA could serve an additional 3 million annual
passengers, or close to 40% growth in passenger demand.
In addition to John Wayne Airport, the recently remodeled and expanded Ontario
Airport currently serves and will continue to serve a substantial portion
of Orange County’s aviation market. SCAG has received presentations from
other Inland airports such as the Southern California Logistics Airport and
March Airport which aggressively pursue developing cargo and future passenger
markets. I trust that SCAG will undertake a true regional approach considering
the totality of the regional aviation assets and work as an AGAP to develop
a practical and cost-effective plan to transport our aviation travelers from
home to their airport of choice.
Sincerely,
Thomas Wilson
Chairman
Orange County Board of Supervisors
Cc: Orange County Board of Supervisors
Jim Ruth, CEO, County of Orange