Opposition to a proposed international airport at the closed Marine Corps base at El Toro, and support for the "Great Park" alternative provided in Measure W on the March 5 ballot, continue -- but have slipped somewhat since November 2001, according to the latest survey of Orange County residents undertaken by Cal State Fullerton’s Center for Public Policy and the Orange County Business Council.

Dates for interviews were January 21 through February 3, 2002.

Residents Believe March 5^th Vote Will Not End the Issue.

In a question included for the first time in quarterly surveys on the topic of a proposed airport and Measure W, we asked residents whether they thought that the vote on March 5^th would end the airport debate in Orange County, using this question:

Opposition to Airport.

Orange County residents reached in the January-February survey were asked:

	Strongly Support	Somewhat Support	Somewhat Oppose	Strongly Oppose
February 2002	22.9%	21.7%	18.9%	36.5%
November 2001	21.8%	18.1%	16.0%	44.1%
June 2001	28.9%	17.9%	15.4%	37.8%
March 2001	20.8%	19.6%	13.3%	46.3%
November 2000	19.0%	17.5%	15.7%	47.8%
July 2000	22.1%	19.2%	11.7%	47.0%
February 2000	23.8%	20.5%	13.0%	42.7%
November 1999	23.9%	22.9%	12.5%	40.7%

As will be seen in Table Two, levels of support for an airport rose, and levels of opposition to an airport fell, in the February results when compared to the November 2001 survey. Changes of the magnitude indicated between November and February fall within conventional levels of statistical significance. In other words, considering a two-way breakdown (either support or oppose), there is a 95 percent or better chance that the shift toward more support for the airport is "real," and not a random artifact of sampling error.

However, the same cannot be said when comparing the June 2001 findings with the February 2002 results. Instead, statistically, the February results mirror the June 2001 results, when comparing both levels of support to both levels of oppose.

"It may be that our November survey was the unusual finding, in which total opposition ("somewhat oppose" + "strongly oppose") rose to sixty percent," commented Dr. Phillip Gianos, CSUF professor of political science.

The survey has no direct, internal set of questions with which to probe the reasons for the shift away from airport support and toward opposition.

"We may note the obvious, however, and observe that the November numbers were obtained during the disrupted period of U.S. air travel that followed the September 11 terrorist attacks in New York and Washington," commented Keith Boyum, Center for Public Policy director and CSUF political science professor. "In November, it would have seemed easy for ordinary citizens to conclude that the Fall 2001 reduction in demand for air travel indicated less need for a proposed airport. Since then, U.S. air travel has rebounded."

Boyum continued: "If my hypothesis is correct, then to see numbers in February that move a little back toward June levels of support for an airport would be natural."
 

As is widely understood in current Orange County politics, the principal alternative to building an international airport at El Toro appears to be a proposal that a large urban park be built on the site.

We asked survey respondents this question:

In Table Three we show that Orange County residents would vote in favor of Measure W, if the election were held "today."

Answers to our survey question about the proposed park mirror answers concerning support for the airport, in the sense that current pro-park sentiment, while lower when compared to November 2001, is close to the level found in June 2001.

	Very Likely	Somewhat Likely	Somewhat Unlikely	Very Unlikely
February 2002	39.2%	21.7%	13.6%	25.5%
November 2001	46.6%	19.8%	10.0%	23.6%
June 2001	41.9%	20.5%	10.2%	27.4%

All numbers from Center for Public Policy / OCBC Surveys.

As will be seen, about six out of ten survey respondents in Orange County told our interviewers in January and February that they were either "very" or "somewhat" likely to vote in favor of Measure W on March 5^th. While that is a smaller total than the 66 percent found in our November 2001 survey, it is quite comparable to the numbers we saw in June 2001. Meanwhile, about four out of ten respondents were either "somewhat" or "very" unlikely to vote in favor of Measure W, a number statistically similar to our June 2001 survey findings.

Dr. Wallace Walrod, vice president for research & communications, Orange County Business Council, commented: "Movement on the issue between November and February, and a finding that 35 percent of respondents are only ‘somewhat’ likely or unlikely in their voting intentions, means that the contest over Measure W is still far from decided."

"Again, November looks like the unusual measurement," noted Phillip Gianos. "Comparing just likely (very + somewhat) to vote for Measure W to unlikely (very + somewhat), the changes from June to November, and again from November to February, are both statistically significant."

"We also note that in this period the county’s pro-airport information campaign was under way, with no comparable anti-airport or pro-park campaign in the field," said Keith Boyum. "An important element in anti-Measure W arguments is whether taxes will be required to pay for a large urban park. We asked questions to tap respondents’ views on this."

Respondents were asked for their likely decision on the proposed park in two different financial support scenarios. We introduced the topic with this transition in our interviews.

	Very Likely	Somewhat Likely	Somewhat Unlikely
February 2002	21.4%	20.0%	15.0%	43.6%
November 2001	24.3%	23.3%	16.3%	36.1%

All numbers from Center for Public Policy / OCBC Surveys.

However, proponents of the park idea argue that a mix of funds could be used to support the park development and operation. Attempting to mirror that argument, we posed this question to respondents:

As will be seen, support at both levels (very likely + somewhat likely) given no local tax increase has slipped from November to February, from roughly seven out of ten to a bit more than six out of ten survey respondents. Opposition increased correspondingly.
 
 

	Very Likely	Somewhat Likely	Somewhat Unlikely	Very Unlikely
February 2002	34.2%	30.5%	8.8%	26.5%
November 2001	40.3%	29.4%	9.5%	20.8%

All numbers from Center for Public Policy / OCBC Surveys.

Professor Gianos commented: "The source of the funds is a real key. If one invokes taxes only, support changes to opposition, with 40 percent in support to 60 percent in opposition. Yet if the revenue base is hypothetically broadened, things switch strongly back to support, roughly 63 to 37. So the new taxes argument against the park looks like a politically strong tactic on the part of pro-airport (anti-park) groups. However, the counter-argument, which we might dub multiple funding sources / no new taxes / it’ll pay for itself, seems to be an effective response – at least so far."

Professor Boyum commented: "This is hardly unknown to the contestants in Orange County’s great ‘airport versus park’ debate. The anti-park (pro-airport) ads have tried hard to persuade people that local taxes will be required for the park. Meanwhile, pro-park (anti-airport) groups make the opposite claim.

"However," Boyum continued, "it seems likely that at least some county residents could reach the judgment that a vote in favor of the proposed park would satisfy their (presumed) wish to de-rail the airport proposal – while not precluding another vote or other political activity that would also prevent a local tax hike for support for a park. In other words, Orange County residents could express an anti-airport view by voting for a park, even while intending to oppose local taxes that would support a park."
 
 

Previous Cal State Fullerton – OCBC surveys have found more opposition, and more intense opposition, to the proposed airport at El Toro from residents in southern Orange County than from northern County residents.
 
 

Data from the latest February 2002 survey demonstrate the same pattern. Support for a proposed large urban park on the El Toro site varied as expected by region of the county. Our question was the same one asked in our November 2001 and June 2001 surveys, except that this survey question made specific reference to Measure W:

• More than eight out of ten residents of South Orange County favored the park proposal in June 2001, and about eight out of ten favored the proposal in November 2001 and in February 2002.
• More than half of the residents of North Orange County favored the park proposal in February. While minor differences can be observed, the proportions of likely (very + somewhat) versus unlikely (very + somewhat) to vote for Measure W are statistically similar to those found in November and June 2001.

_

Very or Somewhat Likely

Very or Somewhat Unlikely

	So. County	No. County	So. County	No. County
February 2002	79.7%	54.6%	20.3%	45.4%
November 2001	81.4%	59.4%	18.5%	40.6%
June 2001	84.2%	57.5%	15.7%	42.5%

All numbers from Center for Public Policy / OCBC Surveys.

Table Three (above) provided the breakdown for Orange County as a whole. Because the two regions are not equal in population – North Orange County includes many more people – the overall numbers for the County as a whole are not simply an average of the North and South County data.

Commented Professor Boyum: "Taking Tables Three and Nine together, there is much more similarity in these numbers than there is difference. The real story for the park proposal is little or no change."

Commenting for the Orange County Business Council, Executive Vice President Julie Puentes said: "There is no question that there is a consistent resistance toward the airport proposal. But the alternative will be more costly to the taxpayers. And it would cause the region to forfeit an opportunity for economic prosperity that can never be regained. We're seeing the adverse impacts of diminished demand now upon the Orange County economy; are we prepared to forfeit forever the economic benefits of meeting a demand that will return over time? In the interests of our long-term economic future, we need to be smart over time, understanding the significance of the short-term decisions before us."

The Orange County Business Council has a formal position in favor of the plan to build an international airport at El Toro. Neither Cal State Fullerton nor the CSUF Center for Public Policy takes any position on the airport plan or the "Great Park" initiative.