For Further Information:
 

Keith Boyum, Ph.D.                                             Julie Puentes
Associate Vice President,                                         Executive Vice President, Public Affairs
Academic Programs                                                 Orange County Business Council
California State University, Fullerton                         (949) 476-7217
(714) 278-4831                                                        (949) 476-2242
Alt. [Cell] (714) 401-4109

Phillip Gianos, Ph.D.                                            Wallace Walrod, Ph.D.
Professor of Political Science                                     Vice President, Research & Communications
California State University, Fullerton                           Orange County Business Council
(714) 278-4713                                                         (949) 794-7237
                                                                                (949) 476-2242

The opinions of Orange County residents have shifted somewhat in the direction of support for a planned international airport at the closed El Toro Marine Base, according to the latest Cal State Fullerton – Orange County Business Council (CSUF-OCBC) survey of County residents.

The airport plan still trails in Orange County opinion. About 53% of residents contacted said that they either "strongly oppose" (37.8%) or "oppose" (15.4%) building an international airport at El Toro.

However, about 47% of respondents in the June survey told interviewers that they either "strongly support" (28.9%) or "support" (17.9%) building an airport. That was up from only 40.4% support or strongly support in the March 2001 CSUF-OCBC survey.

Orange County residents who were reached in the survey were asked: At the present time, do you support or oppose building an international airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station? Would you say that you… Strongly support building the airport, Somewhat support, Somewhat oppose, or Strongly oppose building an international airport at the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station?

This same wording has been used in previous CSUF-OCBC surveys. The results over time are shown in Table One.

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	Strongly  support	Support	Oppose	Strongly  oppose
Latest: June 2001	28.9%	17.9%	15.4%	37.8%
March 2001	20.8%	19.6%	13.3%	46.3%
November 2000	19.0%	17.5%	15.7%	47.8%
July 2000	22.1%	19.2%	11.7%	47.0%
February 2000	23.8%	20.5%	13.0%	42.7%
November 1999	23.9%	22.9%	12.5%	40.7%

All numbers from Center for Public Policy / OCBC Surveys.

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Last summer’s (July 2000) CSUF-OCBC survey identified 47% of Orange County residents as "strongly opposed" to an airport at El Toro, with another 12% or so "opposed." There was no substantial change in our measurements taken in November 2000, and no substantial change again in March 2001, with roughly six out of ten respondents registering opposition, and four out of ten or so registering support.

"At least two things may be significant in explaining these changes in the March – June period," said Dr. Phillip Gianos, CSUF Professor of Political Science. "The first is that at about the time of our March survey, the public relations efforts of anti-airport, pro-"great park" groups constituted the most recent information, the most recent effort, on the scene. As of June, however, different public relations efforts, these generally anti-"great park" and pro-airport, were underway. It’s easy to think that respondents were reacting to the latest information to reach them.

"Secondly," Gianos continued, "and perhaps more speculatively, it may be that our June respondents were, or were becoming, more apprehensive as to the state of the economy in June as compared to March. The talk of recession, and the reality of economic slow-down, could make County residents somewhat more favorable toward an airport as a job-creator."

In understanding these findings, and the findings which follow below drawn from this same survey, it is worth noting that respondents were not asked whether or not they are registered to vote, and were not asked whether they planned to vote in the March 2002 election. In subsequent surveys, closer to the March 2002 election, such question "filters" will be included in the questions posed to survey respondents.

Groups in Irvine and southern Orange County were active in the early spring of 2001, providing information and opinion about a proposed "Great Park" on the site of the closed Marine Corps base at El Toro. The proposal is meant as an alternative to an international airport, and it draws active political support nearly exclusively from opponents of the airport plan.

We questioned our June 2001 survey respondents about the park proposal. Survey respondents were asked: Have you happened to read or hear anything about a proposal that would develop a large urban park on the site of the former Marine Corps Air Station at El Toro? Nearly eight respondents out of ten (78%) reported yes, they had read or heard something about the proposal. There was no significant difference as between north Orange County and south Orange County respondents with respect to whether they had read or heard something about the park proposal.

The OCBC-CSUF survey then asked: As you may know, Orange County will probably vote next March on a proposal to build a great park on the site of the former Marine Corps Air Station at El Toro, instead of an international airport. If the election were held today, how likely is it that you would vote in favor of such a great park?

Regardless of whether they reported having read or heard something about the proposal, more than six out of ten said that they would be either "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to vote in favor of a park. The detailed numbers are shown in Table Two. As this was the first time this question was asked in the survey, there are no over-time comparisons to offer.

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Very Likely	Somewhat Likely	Somewhat Unlikely	Very Unlikely
41.9%	20.5%	10.2%	27.4%

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Careful observers of County policy-making will, of course, note a political contradiction. At least some in the same survey appear to favor both an international airport at El Toro, and a large urban park at El Toro. The numbers are set out in Table Three.

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*Yes category combines "very likely" and "somewhat likely" to vote in favor of a large urban park at El Toro.

**Yes category combines "strongly support" and "support" an international airport at El Toro.
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Dr. Keith Boyum, Center for Public Policy Director, commented: "It is logically consistent to oppose both alternatives: Jane J. Citizen may wish neither a large urban park nor an international airport at the closed El Toro Marine base.

"It is also possible to support both," Boyum continued: "John Q. Citizen may be so averse to some third alternative (such as housing or commercial development) that he would support either an airport or a large urban park."

"But, in the political logic in Orange County," noted Dr. Sandra Sutphen, CSUF Political Science Professor, "it’s completely inconsistent. In this political logic," she continued, "you can’t be on both sides. The political choice is, or will soon be, an airport plan or a large urban park plan."

Pursuing this further, Table Four directly arrays supporters and opponents of the planned international airport by the likelihood that they would vote in favor of a "Great Park" proposal.

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How Likely to Vote in
Favor of a "Great Park?"                       Build International Airport at El Toro?
 

	Support	Oppose
Very Likely	12.7%	68.9%
Somewhat Likely	17.5%	20.2%
Somewhat Unlikely	17.9%	3.8%
Very Unlikely	51.9%	7.1%
	100.0%	100.0%

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Most Orange County residents are politically consistent in their attitudes: those who are in favor of an international airport at El Toro are opposed to building a large urban park on the site; and those who are opposed to such an airport are in favor of building a large urban park at El Toro. Indeed, viewed this way, nearly nine out of ten airport opponents (68.9% + 20.2% = 89.1%) are "politically consistent," and about seven out of ten airport supporters are similarly consistent (51.9% +17.9% = 69.8%).

Yet the differences are worthy of comment. "These numbers tell us that airport opponents have done well in aligning their preferences with their anticipated votes on the park proposal. However, airport supporters have aligned their preferences less well," noted Professor Gianos.

Gianos continued: "Airport opponents, many of whom live near El Toro, may be more intense in their opinions than airport supporters. If so, these numbers make sense. Airport opponents would be more likely than airport supporters to understand the political logic of the choice between airport and park."

"Assuming that an initiative calling for a great park qualifies for the March 2002 ballot, this will be an interesting element to track," said Boyum. "The political campaign for and against a park proposal should result in better alignment of preferences. Future surveys will tell us whether those who now – politically illogically – support both the airport plan and the park proposal, move toward the park and away from airport support, or vice versa."

Familiar differences in the views held by residents of south Orange County versus north Orange County emerged in the data concerning the planned international airport. Table Five shows that more than ¾ of residents of southern Orange County express some level of opposition to an airport, while more than half of residents in northern Orange County express some level of support for the plan.

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Support or Oppose airport at  MCAS El Toro	South County	North County
Strongly Support	10.0%	33.5%
Somewhat Support	11.1%	19.4%
Somewhat Oppose	14.4%	15.7%
Strongly Oppose	64.4%	31.4%
	99.9%	100.0%

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*This and subsequent north / south break-downs include Newport Beach with "North County." See below for a full listing of cities by north / south categories.
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Yet region does not perfectly determine one’s view of the planned international airport. About one out of five residents of southern Orange County (21%) offer some level of support for the airport, while about 46% of northern Orange County residents expressed some level of opposition to the airport plan.
 
 

Meanwhile, residents of southern Orange County showed more support for the proposal to build a large urban park at El Toro than residents of northern Orange County. In this, as shown in Table Six, the county north / south breakdown roughly tracked the same north / south breakdown found in support or opposition to the airport plan.
 

Under construction:  We are still formating the data in this last part of the report.
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Likelihood of Voting in Favor

Of a Large Urban Park South North

At El Toro MCAS County County

Very Likely 64.0% 37.1%

Somewhat Likely 20.2% 20.4%

Somewhat Unlikely 6.7% 10.9%

Very Unlikely 9.0% 31.6%

99.9% 100.0%

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Table Six shows that the park proposal is popular in "both halves" of Orange County, but especially in southern Orange County. In south County, a slightly greater proportion (84%) say they are at least somewhat likely to vote in favor of a park initiative than express some level of opposition to an international airport (79%).

Meanwhile, 57.5% of north County residents reached in our survey indicate that they are either "very likely" or "somewhat likely" to vote in favor of a park initiative. Evidently, some in north County who indicated support for an airport at El Toro also told interviewers that they were at least somewhat likely to vote in favor of a park at the same location.
 
 

We found no significant difference by political party in support for an international airport. That is, Democrats and Republicans were about as likely to offer some level of support, or some level of opposition, to the airport plan. The same data arrayed by self-reported political ideology showed small but statistically significant differences, with self-defined conservatives and self-described "middle of the road" respondents split between support for and opposition to the planned airport, and liberals trending toward airport opposition. The data are set out in Table Seven.
 
 

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Support or Oppose Airport "Middle of Conserva-

At El Toro MCAS Liberals Road" tives

Strongly Support 25.6% 29.6% 31.4%

Somewhat Support 17.1 23.9 14.6

Somewhat Oppose 11.6 16.2 18.4

Strongly Oppose 45.7 30.3 35.7

100.0% 100.0% 100.1%

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The survey found some difference between Democrats and Republicans with respect to reported likelihood of voting in favor of a large urban park at El Toro, with Republicans more frequently responding that they were either "somewhat unlikely" or "very unlikely" to vote in favor of a park proposal. The data are shown in Table Eight.
 
 

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Likelihood of Voting in Favor

Of a Large Urban Park

At El Toro MCAS Democrats Republicans

Very Likely 46.0% 39.5%

Somewhat Likely 22.0 17.6

Somewhat Unlikely 10.7 8.3

Very Unlikely 21.3 34.6

100.0% 100.0%

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Meanwhile, liberals, middle-of-road, and conservative respondents in our survey all broke toward support for a park proposal. However, self-described conservatives and middle-of-road respondents were noticeably more likely to say that they probably would not vote for a park proposal than liberals were. Where liberals were roughly 70-30 in favor of the park idea, support for a park was roughly 60-40 among both conservatives and middle-of-road respondents. The data are found in Table Nine.
 
 

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Likelihood of Voting in Favor

Of a Large Urban Park "Middle of Conserva-

At El Toro MCAS LiberalsRoad"tives

Very Likely 46.2% 40.8% 38.8%

Somewhat Likely 23.1 17.7 20.0

Somewhat Unlikely 9.2 11.6 10.3

Very Unlikely 21.5 29.9 30.8

100.0% 100.0% 100.1%

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In one final analysis, we compared levels of support by region in November 1999, with the latest (June 2001) survey. Results are shown in Table Ten.
 
 
 
 

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Nov. ’99 June ’01

North South North South

Somewhat Support 24.2 8.9 19.4 11.1

Somewhat Oppose 15.7 3.6 15.7 14.4

Strongly Oppose 34.2 73.4 31.4 64.4

100.0% 100.1% 100.0% 99.9%
 
 
 
 

All numbers from Center for Public Policy / OCBC Surveys.

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"What catches my eye is the apparent movement of opinion in south County from ‘strongly oppose’ to ‘somewhat oppose,’" said CSUF Political Scientist Phillip Gianos. "Is southern Orange County to become a significant battleground in the fight over the airport?

"The numbers also invite us to speculate about the competing public relations campaigns," continued Gianos. "I wonder if the anti-park argument focused on paying for it hasn’t made a dent in park support / airport opposition. It may be one thing to oppose an airport, and quite another thing to support a park when questions of fiscal liability are raised."

"Summing up, this latest survey seems to show these things," concluded CSUF Center for Public Policy Director Keith Boyum.

"First, opposition to the airport plan continues, but we have seen some apparent movement away from earlier levels of opposition to less opposition / more support.

"Second, as of June 2001, there was substantial support for the proposed ‘Great Park’ plan. But it must be noted that there are months, and substantial campaigns, between now and a March 2002 election. We’re in the early innings of a long ball game, and the score could easily change.

"Third, where you live in Orange County continues to make the most difference in your views about the airport, and where you live (south County versus north County) matters in apparent support for the large urban park proposal.

"Fourth, while political liberals show somewhat more interest in the park proposal, support for the idea of a park can be found across ideological categories, and across political party affiliations."

"These results are particularly interesting in light of the airport opponents' paid signature-gathering effort that has been underway during this period, as well as the county's new 'just-the-facts' program," said Julie Puentes, spokeswoman for the Orange County Business Council. "The voters appear to be moving away from knee-jerk reactions and toward a more thoughtful review of the alternatives. They're no longer saying 'hell no' to either side - they appear to be saying, 'Let's take a look. We're open to more information.’" said Puentes.

The Orange County Business Council has a formal position in favor of the plan to build an international airport at El Toro. Neither Cal State Fullerton nor the CSUF Center for Public Policy takes any position on the airport plan or the "Great Park" proposal.

The survey was conducted for the CSUF Center for Public Policy / Orange County Business Council team by the Social Science Research Center at California State University, Fullerton (SSRC). The SSRC Director is Dr. Gregory Robinson.

Telephone interviews were conducted utilizing Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI) equipment and software. The CATI system is a sophisticated information gathering protocol that contributes to the accuracy of data and to preserving the random nature of the sample.

A draft survey instrument was provided by the Center for Public Policy and refined by the Social Science Research Center for comprehensiveness, flow, length and factors that influence respondent cooperation and interest.

The sample design was provided by the SSRC, as was technical assistance with data analysis.

The survey of Orange County residents took place between June 19th and July 2nd, 2001. Some 532 randomly selected households are represented in the data. Interviews were in English. The confidence interval for findings noted is plus / minus 4.34%.

North / South County Note. In North / South County breakdowns, these cities were included in the "North:" Anaheim, Brea, Buena Park, Costa Mesa, Cypress, Fountain Valley, Fullerton, Garden Grove, Huntington Beach, La Habra, La Palma, Los Alamitos, Midway City, Newport Beach, Orange, Placentia, Santa Ana, Seal Beach, Stanton, Tustin, Tustin Foothills/Tustin Ranch, Westminster, Yorba Linda.

The following cities were included in the "South": Aliso Viejo, Corona Del Mar, Dana Point, Irvine, Laguna Beach, Laguna Hills, Laguna Niguel, Laguna Woods, Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, Rancho Santa Margarita, San Clemente, San Juan Capistrano.