Is the airport dead yet?

Could there still be an El Toro airport?

Could there still be an El Toro airport now that the land is divided between Lennar and the City of Irvine? The short answer - from both sides in the long battle - is that anything is theoretically possible. But it would be very unlikely.

The law

Important laws would have to be changed. California's Public Utilities Code requires city council approval before an airport can be built in any city.

The legislature overrode this local city control provision when it created the San Diego Regional Airport Authority but left the decision on a new airport site to a countywide vote. The substitution of a public vote for city control won local officials' backing.  It would be highly undemocratic of the legislature to overturn both Irvine city control and the vote of Orange County citizens (Measure W) regarding El Toro reuse.

It remains to be seen whether one of the regional airport authority bills sitting in Sacramento can morph into a form that affects El Toro and be passed into law this year. Some see the close of the legislative session in September as the end of the line for airport prospects.

With the transfer of the land from the federal government, the Airport Land Use Commission's jurisdiction over development in the flight paths has evaporated by operation of law. To block coming rapid encroachment in the "buffer zone" around El Toro, it would be necessary to change ALUC law.

The land

The state, or an agency created or empowered by the state, would have to acquire the land from Lennar and Irvine, by voluntary purchase or through eminent domain.  The cost would be high and will rise over time, particularly as Lennar develops its part of the property.

However, one or two billion dollars for land still is only a fraction of the cost for creating a major new airport. Former Los Angeles Mayor James Hahn planned to spend $11 billion just to modernize LAX.

The purchase could be covered by the issuance of airport revenue bonds if the economics pencil out. That is a very big "if". El Toro Airport was a questionable investment in the late 1990's when Orange County hoped to acquire the land free of cost from the federal government.

The El Toro site will be a huge chunk of largely empty land for years. It will get emptier through demolition of obsolete structures before it is eventually developed.

Thousands of acres of largely empty land are exactly what the San Diego Regional Airport Authority has been seeking in its airport site search. The state gave the San Diego authority power to "take by grant, purchase, devise, or lease or otherwise acquire and hold real and personal property outside its area of jurisdiction in order to further its purposes."

The San Diego site search extends into neighboring counties. El Toro was on the San Diego authority's original list of candidates. Properties in Riverside and Imperial Counties are still on the list.

It is a question as to whether this authority to take land really can override local government control at sites outside of San Diego County.

Physical obstacles to an airport

Nothing will be constructed at El Toro for years that is massive enough to render it unusable for an airport. Even the 3,400 homes that Lennar plans to start selling in 2008 are subject to eminent domain and removal "for the public good" though this would drive up the cost of the airport project.

San Diego's regional airport authority is studying the addition of a second runway at Lindbergh Field. The Union-Tribune reports that the "proposed footprint for the new airstrip and its support facilities includes the ipayOne Center (the former San Diego Sports Arena), the Midway Drive post office, Sharp Memorial Hospital, the Liberty Station redevelopment project on former Naval Training Center land, and everything along Rosecrans Street northeast of Nimitz Boulevard." The North County Times says "A second runway [at Lindbergh] would have to be built around the recruit depot and could involve removing of more than 3,000 homes displacing more than 10,000 people, according to an authority study. Numerous businesses also would have to be relocated."

Condemnation and purchase of large amounts of private property around LAX and other airport sites is a fact of life.

Runway demolition

Demolition of the El Toro runways will have a big symbolic effect. It also will raise a barrier to interim aviation use - a important airport foot in the door contemplated by Orange County in 1999. Runway demolition to preclude interim flights for cargo, police or emergency aircraft is politically and legally useful to remove El Toro from any regulations applicable to "existing" airports.

However, the old military runways are inefficient for commercial use and probably would be removed anyway, if an entity like Los Angeles World Airports took control. Orange County's airport plan contemplated extensive demolition, regrading and movement of the runways. The V-Plan runway configuration, which many considered superior to the county's layout, would have required even more demolition of the existing concrete.

If El Toro were somehow redesignated for a new airport, planners might welcome the removal of what presently is there to provide a clean slate on which to design a more modern runway system that fits better with existing regional air traffic flow, FAA specifications and wind conditions. New takeoff and landing paths would eliminate some of the safety objections to the old plan but the objections based on vehicular traffic and environmental concerns would continue.

Barriers to an airport

Barriers to a commercial airport at El Toro are a mix of economic, political and legal factors.

The operating agency would have to obtain state authority to override local control in the face of fierce local opposition. So long as the Orange County Board of Supervisors remains anti-airport this would be a hard sell at the state level.

Irvine and South County cities in ETRPA would put up a major fight. Attempts to build and operate an airport surrounded by several hostile cities and a resistant county would face numerous obstacles.

The state passed up the chance to act when El Toro was in federal hands. Los Angeles Mayor Hahn failed in his El Toro grab. It would be surprising if the legislature and Governor agreed to approve a hostile takeover now, after additional doors have closed in the reuse process.

An airport agency probably would request Washington's uncertain support for what would be a politically unpopular project. Even deep pockets like Los Angeles World Airports would likely seek federal funding. Bowing to political pressure from Orange County congressional representatives, the FAA conditioned its regional transportation planning grant to the Southern California Association of Governments, SCAG, on it not being used for El Toro planning.

An airport agency would be obliged to commit millions of dollars to create an airport plan and conduct environmental impact reviews. It must submit the project to evaluation for compatibility with the other uses in neighboring cities that increasingly will encroach on the former base. Plans would be attacked by a huge sea of litigation. Los Angles has spent well over $100 million on LAX planning and legal expenses. Do they need more?

Such an undertaking would be extremely difficult to justify economically as well as politically.

El Toro is still an unwanted and unneeded airport.

There is no need for an El Toro airport. Numerous industry sources have said that it would force the closing of John Wayne Airport which is only seven miles away, producing only part of any hoped for gain in regional capacity.

The rapidly growing population of the Inland Empire is seeking development at the former military bases in Riverside, San Bernardino and Victorville. Palmdale sits empty after many years of Los Angeles ownership. Ontario operates at one fourth of its planned potential, and other regional airports have capacity that arguably would be easier to utilize before building another airport.

In pragmatic terms, it just becomes not worth the hassle to spend many billions of dollars on an unneeded and unwanted airport in the wrong place. Interest in El Toro will fizzle and transportation planners will look elsewhere.

We believe that rational decision making will prevail over Hahn-type political grandstanding and El Toro will continue on course towards its non aviation future.

Leonard Kranser
Revised July 26, 2005