IRVINE, CA – Sixty percent of registered voters in Orange County say they oppose the construction of an international airport at El Toro and 61% would support the Orange County Central Park and Nature Preserve Initiative if it were on the ballot, according to a new independent poll released this week.

The comprehensive study of 1,444 county voters, conducted independently by Pacific Opinions between August 7^th and 13^th, finds 35% supporting an airport -- the same percentage found by the UCI Annual Survey conducted in May 2000.

However, the poll finds the percentage of those opposing the airport has increased from 54% to 60%. While the Annual Survey is a poll of residents of Orange County, The Pacific Poll is of registered voters, giving a direct indication of how the county might vote if an election were held on the issue.

"If public opinion is moving at all on the airport, our data suggest it is moving against it," said Christian Collet, who directed the poll for Pacific Opinions. "Those few who have been on the fence up to now appear to be joining the opposition."

Voters Closely Following El Toro Debate, Don’t Trust Either Side

The debate over the future of El Toro is being watched closely by Orange County voters. More than 3 in 5 voters say they are following the debate on El Toro "very" or "somewhat" closely, while 1 in 4 are following it "a little". Just 13% say that are not following the El Toro debate "at all".

In spite of the attention, the public reveals doubt about the honesty of the information it is receiving on the issue. When asked which side is telling the truth about El Toro, a plurality (36%) say "neither" and another 17% say they do not know. Twenty-eight percent believe the anti-airport side is more truthful, while 19% say the pro-airport side is more truthful.

Park Has Risen as Public’s #1 Preferred Use for El Toro

As the debate has shifted in recent months to the building of a public park, the study reveals a similar shift in voter preferences for the future use of El Toro. A poll taken in April 1993 by The Los Angeles Times/OC showed interest in building a park at El Toro at less than 5%, ranking below an international airport (31%) and other alternatives. The UCI Annual Survey taken in September 1997 showed a park receiving 15%, with an airport receiving 24%.

Now, for the first time, voters say they prefer "a public park" (33%) to an international airport (27%).

Park Measure Has Strong Support – But Weakens Among Frequent Primary and Absentee Voters

More than 2/3 of county voters are familiar with the proposed measure to develop a public park at the former Marine Corps Air Station. Thirty percent say they have never heard of the measure.

When asked if they would support a park measure "if an election were held today", 61% of voters told Pacific Opinions they would vote "yes" on such a measure, with 43% saying they would definitely vote "yes". Thirty-five percent oppose the measure – 26% definitely voting "no". Four percent are unsure.

Utilizing county records, Pacific Opinions matched voting history in past primary elections to each anonymous survey respondent. The analysis revealed a relationship between voting – particularly by absentee – and gradual opposition to the park measure.

"At this point in time, 3 in 5 registered voters support the park, but that is quite different than saying a measure, if qualified for the ballot, will easily pass in March," said Collet. "Voters likely to turn out in a primary are also more likely to be against the park. Mobilization of casual voters -- and registration of new ones – will become the key to any campaign."

Park and Airport Are Closely Linked in Voters’ Minds

Asked why they support or oppose the park measure, voters overwhelmingly give responses related to the airport. Among "yes" voters, 48% say they support the measure because it would stop the construction of an airport, while 40% say they want the park or a specific park item, such as a zoo or museum. By contrast, 55% of "no" voters say they oppose the park because they want an airport built. Just 13% mentioned financial concerns with building the park and 8% say there is no need for a new park.

Public Wants More Parks in Orange County, But 41% Unlikely to Use One at El Toro

To assess general attitudes on parks irrespective of El Toro, The Pacific Poll asked voters whether they believed more space should be devoted to developing parks in Orange County or whether there was already enough space designated for this purpose. Seventy-three percent say "more space" should be given to public parks, while 24% say there is already "enough space" for this purpose.

In spite of a public desire for more park space, 41% say they are "not too" or "not at all" likely to visit one if it were built at El Toro. Thirty-one percent say they would be "very" likely and 26% would be somewhat likely to visit.

More Than Half Believe Taxes Would Be Raised to Build Park, Few Willing to Pay

The Pacific Poll asked voters whether they believe a proposed park at El Toro can be built without raising taxes. A majority, 52%, believe "taxes will have to be raised" in order to build the park, while 35% believe it can be built without raising taxes. Twelve percent are unsure.

And when asked if they would be willing to pay more in taxes to support a park at El Toro, just 9% say they would be "very" willing, with 29% "somewhat" willing. Sixty-two percent are "not too" or "not at all" willing to pay.

The Pacific Poll, of a random sample of 1,444 registered voters in Orange County, was administered by telephone, in English and Spanish, between August 7^th and August 13^th, 2001. The data presented here were weighted to mirror the characteristics of the county voting population. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is approximately +/-2.6 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. Sampling error is larger for subgroups. It is important to recognize that sampling error is just one potential error in opinion surveys; results can be affected by other factors such as question wording and order, timing of the interviews, as well as the interaction between interviewers and respondents.

Pacific Opinions is an independent research company based in Irvine, California, that conducts polls and survey research for private-sector clients, media and non-profit organizations. Christian Collet, Ph.D., Visiting Professor in the Department of Political Science at University of California, Irvine, serves as the director of The Pacific Poll.

This is the sixth in a series of polls on public attitudes in Orange and San Diego Counties. Previous Pacific Polls have examined energy, immigration, diversity and development issues. The Pacific Poll is a public-interest research project funded by Pacific Opinions and is conducted as a service to the communities of Orange and San Diego Counties. The data from all Pacific Polls are archived for public use at the Libraries of the University of California, Irvine, after their release.

1. I am going to read a list of possible uses for open space in Orange County. After you hear each one, please tell me if you generally think MORE SPACE in Orange County should be used for this purpose or whether you think we ALREADY HAVE ENOUGH space for these things in Orange County…public parks.

As you may know, there has been a debate about what to do with the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station now that it is no longer being used as a military facility.

2. Have you been following the El Toro debate very closely, somewhat closely, a little or not at all?

3. I am going to read to you a list of alternatives that have been proposed for using the land at El Toro. After hearing the entire list, please tell me which one would be your first choice for using the land. Would your first choice be…
 
 

* Please note difference in question wording used by UCI Annual Survey: "Which of the following do you most prefer as the future use of the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station?"

4. One idea has been to transform the El Toro Marine Air Corps Station into a commercial airport. Generally speaking, do you favor or oppose this idea?

* Please note the small difference in question wording used by UCI Annual Survey: "Do you favor or oppose the proposal to transform the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into a commercial airport?"

5. Recently, a group has proposed a ballot measure that would create a large public park on the land at El Toro.

Have you heard or seen anything about this measure?
 
 

6. This measure will designate the land at El Toro for a large public park that will consist of education facilities, sports fields, golf courses, libraries, zoos, and museums. It will also preserve nature areas. The initiative will repeal Measure A, which was passed by the voters in 1994. Measure A designated the land at El Toro to be used for an international airport.

If the election were held today, would you vote YES or NO on this measure to create a large public park on the land at El Toro? [IF YES/NO, please ask:] And would you say you would definitely vote (YES/NO) on the initiative, or probably vote (YES/NO) on the initiative?
 
 

7. And why would you vote (YES or NO)?

8. If a large public park such as the one I described were built at El Toro, how likely would you be to use this facility?
 
 

9. [ASK ONLY OF VOTERS WHO SAID THEY WERE PAYING ATTENTION TO DEBATE] Regardless of your personal view on this issue, which side in the debate over El Toro do you believe is the most truthful? Do you believe the PRO-airport side is more truthful, the ANTI-airport side is the more truthful, or do you believe that NEITHER side is telling the truth?
 
 

10. The group promoting the public park at El Toro says they can pay for it without raising taxes, by funding it through user fees, leasing the space, and private donations. Those who oppose the park say there will have to be a tax increase in order to pay for the park.

What do you think? Do you think a new public park at El Toro can be paid for WITHOUT A TAX INCREASE, or do you think TAXES WILL HAVE TO BE RAISED in order to build the park?
 
 

11. And how willing would you be to pay a new tax to build a new public park at El Toro? Would you be very willing, somewhat willing, not too willing, or not willing at all?