Tuesday, February 15, 2000

El Toro Airport Opponents Take Lead in Survey
Land use: A 56% majority of likely O.C. voters supports the anti-airport Measure F. With 1 in 4 still undecided, the issue's outcome is inconclusive.

         By JEAN O. PASCO, Times Staff Writer
 

              For the first time in four years, support for an international airport at El Toro
         Marine Corps Air Station has eroded, according to a new poll, raising questions
         about the outcome of one of the most controversial land-use debates in Orange
         County history.
              The poll, commissioned by The Times' Orange County edition, found that most
         county voters--52%--now oppose a new airport at the former Marine base. In a
         similar poll in February 1999, 42% opposed the airport.
              The poll results come just three weeks before voters decide the fate of a key
         anti-airport ballot measure, Measure F.
              The outcome of that measure also is far from conclusive, according to the poll.
         Overall, 56% of likely voters said they support the anti-airport measure, with 18%
         opposed. However, a sizable portion of the electorate--26%--remain undecided
         about Measure F, which requires a simple majority to pass.
              The poll findings set the stage for an all-out battle by both sides of the airport
         issue as the March 7 election approaches.
              "The airport has lost its luster," said Cheryl Katz of Baldassare Associates, which
         conducted the poll of 800 voters, including 512 likely voters, between Feb. 9 and
         13. "The Measure F campaign is focusing people on the shortcomings of the
         airport."
              Monday, airport backers conceded that the anti-airport effort had gained some
         ground--in part, they said, because of a heavy marketing campaign. But, airport
         proponents said, the fight is far from over.
              "Misinformation eventually takes its toll, but I don't believe for a moment that it's
         a hopeless cause," said Bruce Nestande, chairman of the pro-airport Citizens for
         Jobs and the Economy. "Given the amount of money that has been spent [against
         the airport], that they haven't put it out of reach is significant."
              The biggest--and perhaps most surprising--swing in airport sentiment occurred
         in North County, where support for the proposed airport has traditionally been
         strongest.
              The poll suggests that many
              voters there are less convinced than ever about the need for the airport. And that
         uncertainty raises doubts about how they will vote on Measure F.
              The measure would effectively halt airport planning. If passed, it would require
         approval by two-thirds of voters before the county could build new airports, large
         jails and hazardous-waste landfills near homes.
              Measure F has been promoted primarily by South County residents, aided by
         upward of $10 million in anti-airport messages financed by South County cities. The
         cities cannot by law advocate a position on Measure F, but through cable-TV
         advertisements and direct mail have pushed a non-aviation alternative for the former
         Marine base.
              Some observers credit the apparent shift in airport opinions to a campaign begun
         months ago by airport opponents, who have been stressing home safety, traffic and
         pollution concerns.
              The latest poll findings underscore just how conflicted Orange County voters are
         when it comes to the proposed airport at El Toro.
              Voters have twice endorsed the proposed airport, and the March ballot initiative
         marks the third time opponents will try to stop the project.
              The current ballot measure only complicates matters further. A "yes" vote on
         Measure F is a "no" vote for the airport. Conversely, a "no" vote on Measure F
         means airport planning will continue uninterrupted.
              Voters were more inclined to oppose the measure when they realized it would
         stop the airport, the poll found. Opposition to Measure F rose to 30% among likely
         voters when this was made apparent.
              Some observers said the poll results indicated a larger anti-county government
         movement afoot.
              Voters throughout Orange County are rejecting an overbearing county planning
         process trying to build an intrusive new airport that most residents don't believe is
         necessary, said Yes on F leader Jeffrey Metzger.
              "There is an overall sense that the county is trying to shove something down the
         throats of citizens," Metzger said. "Their plan is not persuasive. It'll translate to
         victory on March 7."
              Poll respondent Brenda Fowler, 53, a hazardous-waste mechanic in Los Angeles,
         agreed. She's voting for Measure F because a glut of public facilities near her home
         already produces too much noise and traffic. Forcing county officials to get a
         two-thirds vote first would keep her neighborhood from being besieged, she said.
              "I live in Santa Ana and we have a jail right down the street," she said. "We
         already get enough traffic from John Wayne [Airport] right on top of our house. I
         work in hazardous waste, so I really don't believe we need another hazardous-waste
         landfill."
              Poll respondent Phillip Biles of Anaheim, a 62-year-old electronics engineer,
         believes otherwise. The opportunity to build another airport in Orange County is too
         good to pass up, he said.
              "The opposition to the airport seems to be primarily 'not in my backyard,' " he
         said. "They don't want it near them and only want to put the airport somewhere
         else."
              James Kelley, 66, of Irvine sits solidly in the anti-airport camp.
              "I've been anti-airport at El Toro since the debate started," Kelley said. "Here at
         my house, I can hear the planes flying at John Wayne when the wind is right."
              But he said he is more concerned about traffic and pollution from commercial jet
         exhaust. "If anyone tells you the airport isn't going to cause more traffic, well,
         they've got a bunch of rocks in their head," he said.
              Airport concerns were key considerations for Measure F supporters. Concern
         over jails and landfills was cited by very few.
              Pro-airport consultant David Ellis said the results reflect an uncertainty that will
         evaporate as anti-airport messages on the airwaves and in mailboxes are countered.
              "The campaign is just beginning," said Ellis, who works for the Airport Working
         Group, a coalition of homeowners near John Wayne Airport who have pushed for
         construction of a second county airport for 20 years.
              Whatever the election outcome, its results will be felt far beyond Orange
         County's borders. Killing an airport at El Toro would likely force future regional air
         traffic growth onto Los Angeles, Ontario and San Diego international airports.
              Times staff writer David Reyes contributed to this report.
              * For more information about the airport debate, click onto The Times' newly
         expanded Web site at http://www.latimes.com/eltoro. The site includes a
         comprehensive Measure F voter guide, special research sections, interactive bulletin
         boards, an insider column and the latest news.
              * MORE ON EL TORO
              For the latest, most complete information about the airport debate, click onto
         The Times' newly expanded Web site at www.latimes.com/eltoro
 

              A SHIFT IN THE AIR?
              Orange County voters are no longer behind plans to build an airport at El Toro,
         according to a poll conducted by the Times Orange County edition. The passage of
         Measure F--an initiative that would halt airport plans--remains unclear: A majority of
         likely voters say they will support it March 7, but a sizable segment remains
         undecided, and has the power to shift the election either way. A closer look at voter
         sentiment on an El Toro Airport, and Measure F:
              * AIRPORT SUPPORT: "Do you favor or oppose the proposal to transform the
         El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international airport?"
              MEASURE F SUPPORT: If passed, the initiative would require two-thirds of the
         county's voters to approve any projects involving airports, hazardous-aste landfills
         and jails with more than 1,000 beds to be built near residential areas. Pollsters read
         the ballot initiative and then asked: "'If the election were held today, would you vote
         yes or no on Measure F?"
              "If Measure F fails, it could stop the county's plans for an international airport at
         El Toro. Knowing this, would you vote yes or no on Measure F?"
              "What is the main reason for your vote on Measure F?" (open-ended question)
         Reason for Yes vote:
              NOTE: This Times Orange County Poll of 800 registered voters was conducted
         February 9 through 12 by telephone on weekday nights and weekend days.
         Respondents were selected at random from a computer-generated sample that
         included listed and unlisted telephone numbers. Upon reaching a household,
         interviewers asked to speak with a registered voter. Of those polled, 512 were
         identified as likely to vote on March 7. The margin of error is 3.5% for the total
         sample and 4.5% for the subgroup of 512 likely voters. For smaller subgroups,
         such as age or region, the margin of error would be larger. For this analysis, "north"
         included Newport Beach and cities to the north and "south" included Irvine and
         cities to the south.
              Source: Times Orange County Polls by Baldassare Associates

Do you favor or oppose the proposal to transform the El Toro Marine Corp Air Station into an international airport?
 

	North County	South County	All Voters
Favor	39%	14%	33%
Oppose	44%	78%	52%
Don't know	17%	8%	15%