“Southern California's economy will get a similar boost from an airport expansion, whether it's at giant Los Angeles International or a small, regional airport, a new study says.  As a result, the study recommends, planners should focus on expanding airports according to which projects would have the least impact on traffic and the environment. "Air transportation is important, but so are a lot of other things," says Skip Hull, an economist and vice president at San Diego-based CIC Research Inc., which conducted the study for the Southern California Association of Governments. "Now let's do it well."

The $100,000 study comes at a time when officials in Los Angeles and Orange County are working on plans for multibillion-dollar airport expansions, partly because bigger airports bring new jobs and businesses.

Looking at passenger forecasts for 2020, the study concluded that there would be an additional annual economic activity of $11.2 billion -- and the creation of 83,000 jobs -- if the most-aggressive LAX expansion plan were implemented, as compared with no expansion. Economic activity includes direct and indirect benefits, such as airline ticket sales, employee wages and hotels. That regional plan factors in an expanded LAX that would ferry 94 million passengers annually and a new airport at the former El Toro Marine Corps Air Station that would carry 22.2 million passengers.

In Context

While the estimates of $11.2 billion and 83,000 jobs may seem large, the study points out that by 2020, the six-county regional economy -- which stretches from Ventura to Orange to San Bernardino counties -- also will be huge. The result: CIC's estimated increase in economic activity will represent a little more than 0.5% of the region's $1.7 trillion economy and its nearly 13.8 million jobs.

The Southern California Association of Governments, the region's transportation planning agency, commissioned the study as part of devising a regional transportation plan that it expects to issue next March. The group is to recommend in the plan which airports in the region should expand. Currently, the region's six major airports fly about 85 million passengers annually.

Opponents of an expanded LAX say the study confirms their arguments that a bigger LAX isn't critical to the health of the regional economy. Rather, the region should look to expand airports in other areas, such as Orange County's El Toro site.

Ruth Galanter, a Los Angeles City Council member who opposes an expanded LAX, says the study reaches "the same conclusion" she has reached. The "economic benefits to Southern California are pretty much the same," Ms. Galanter says, "no matter where in the region airport demand is met."

Adds El Segundo Mayor Mike Gordon, the leader of a coalition of nearly 80 cities and counties that opposes LAX expansion: "This study fully supports our arguments that a regional plan is the best approach" for the communities surrounding LAX, "and the best approach for other communities that want opportunities to develop airports."

Economic Engines

The study, however, is drawing criticism from LAX officials and airport boosters. "Airports -- whether it's LAX or others -- are tremendous economic engines," says Jim Ritchie, deputy executive director for long-range planning at Los Angeles World Airports and the person spearheading the LAX master plan.

Mr. Ritchie says LAX has played a big role in the region's aviation and will continue to do so in the future because it's located in a dense population center. Currently, LAX ferries about 64 million passengers annually, or nearly 75% of the region's air-passenger traffic. It creates 408,000 jobs in a five-county region and brings in about $60 billion in direct economic benefits, measured by wages and business generated, such as tourist spending at hotels and restaurants. LAX staff is recommending a $10 billion to $12 billion master plan that would reconfigure runways and add a terminal to expand air capacity to 89 million passengers annually in 2015.

'Airport of Choice'

"This has been an airport here for 70 years, and for the past 50 years it has been the dominant airport," he says. "If we grow in the next 20 years, to doubling the demand, you can certainly expect LAX will be a key point in that growth. ... Airlines have continued to prosper to the point that LAX is an airport of choice for convenience."

Mr. Ritchie says LAX will release its own economic-impact analysis in about two months.

But Carol Schatz, president of the Central City Association, which represents downtown businesses in Los Angeles, says there is more at stake than simply economic benefits. Rather, it's a matter of meeting aviation demand.

"The principal reason that you need to modernize and expand is because of the growing market," says Ms. Schatz. "The airport simply isn't big enough to accommodate all the passengers and air cargo."