Project '99 Newsletter, July 1998

A Plan of Action to Protect and Improve Our Community
A Note from Larry Agran Chair of Project 99

Dear Neighbor,

We’re taking a little bit of a chance with this month’s newsletter. You see, this issue of the newsletter is about numbers. And our own experience at Project 99 has taught us that many people pretty much “tune out” to statistics of any kind.

Whether you’re a “numbers person” or not, please give this month’s newsletter a careful reading. Why? Because the County’s plan to convert the nearby El Toro Marine Corps Base to a massive international airport is built on numbers that are lies through and through.

This month we’re examining the biggest lie of all: County officials are claiming that they can build a commercial airport at El Toro that’s about half the size of LAX . . . and they say they can do it for $1.6 billion, or less. The truth of the matter is that an international airport at El Toro would cost at least $5 billion, and probably much more.

Does it matter? You bet it does. Everyone in Orange County — North County, South County, Central County — is at terrible risk. A $5 billion El Toro Airport, financed through the County’s issuance of bonds, represents a public investment of about $2000 for every man, woman and child in Orange County. This is the kind of irresponsible borrow-and-bet mentality that plunged the County into bankruptcy just four years ago.

Yes, the County needs to invest in infrastructure. But instead of an unneeded, unwanted, unworkable and unaffordable El Toro Airport, wouldn’t we be wiser to invest in building up our schools and parks, our roads and rail service? As we prepare for the new century, these public investments would cost a lot less than $5 billion — and they’d do a lot more to make life better for everyone in Orange County.

The Five-Billion-Dollar Financial Disaster
It’s Time to Talk Dollars — and $en$e! — About El Toro

A brief history lesson is in order: On November 8, 1994, Orange County voters adopted Measure A — a countywide initiative to convert the Marine Corps Base at El Toro to an international airport. Measure A was adopted on an ever-so-close 51% to 49% vote, based on proponents’ promises that converting the base to a commercial airport would be a “turnkey operation.” In other words, when the Marines left El Toro in 1999, they would hand over the keys to County officials and, like magic, El Toro International Airport would soon open for operation at little or no cost to anyone.

This something-for-nothing El Toro fantasy ended on December 6, 1994 — just 28 days after the Measure A vote. That’s when the County Supervisors filed for bankruptcy. At a cost of $1.64 billion, it was the biggest municipal bankruptcy in American history. All the happy talk about a cost-free “turnkey” airport at El Toro vanished…for a while.

Now fast forward to the Fall of 1996. The County Supervisors publish their concept plan for El Toro International Airport. Called the MCAS El Toro Community Reuse Plan, its bottom-line claim is that a massive commercial airport about half the size of LAX can be built at El Toro for just $1.6 billion. One clever citizen saw the irony right away when she said: “$1.6 billion — that sounds mighty cheap to build a great big international airport. Why, in this County it costs that much just to go bankrupt!”

The County’s claim of $1.6 billion to build El Toro International Airport is, indeed, “mighty cheap.” In fact, Project 99’s cost research, begun in 1996, reveals a startling reality: It will cost at least $5 billion to build El Toro International Airport — that’s more than three times as much as County officials admit. (See chart below)

Does it matter to the average citizen? It should. Think of it this way: $5 billion spent at El Toro amounts to an outlay of about $6000 for the average Orange County family.

Project 99’s research into the County’s cost projections for El Toro International Airport targeted three areas where County officials have underestimated the costs by billions of dollars.

The Runways. According to the County’s plan for El Toro, “airfield” costs will be just $93.1 million. Aviation and engineering experts familiar with runway requirements call this figure “nonsense.” The existing runways at El Toro, built decades ago for military use, were intended for fighter aircraft and an occasional military transport. The runways are totally inadequate for around-the-clock use by huge commercial jets weighing up to 800,000 pounds. To be commercially serviceable, the runways and accompanying taxiways would have to be lengthened, strengthened, and in all probability torn up and rebuilt to meet federal safety standards. The cost —at least $1 billion.

The Terminal. The County plan for El Toro calls for a massive passenger terminal with “at least 90 gates” at a projected cost of just $987 million. That’s about $10 million per gate. Compare that with the cost of John Wayne Airport’s passenger terminal of 14 gates built at a cost of about $500 million (measured in 1996 dollars). That’s an actual per-gate cost of about $35 million at John Wayne Airport — or more than triple the per-gate estimate for El Toro International. Even allowing for economies of scale, the passenger terminal at El Toro will almost certainly cost at least $2 billion.

Roads. The County’s relatively tiny projection for “Off-Site Roads” ($66.2 million) appears to be a deliberate attempt to mislead the public. County officials acknowledge that El Toro International Airport will generate an additional 305,000 daily vehicle trips throughout Orange County. That means huge outlays for off-site infrastructure — roads, added freeway lanes, bridges, underpasses, overpasses, and complex signal systems. The cost — at least $1.6 billion.

Honest cost projec-tions for runways, the passenger terminal, and roads and related infra-structure quickly push the costs for El Toro International to well over $5 billion. But this doesn’t even include other multi-billion-dollar “wild card” costs that never were incorporated into the County’s calculations. Among these are:

Toxic Cleanup. If Orange County officials are foolish enough to allow the federal government to convey the 4700-acre El Toro Marine Corps Base without first cleaning up the monstrous pools of underground toxic waste, the burden of the cleanup will fall to Orange County taxpayers. Cleanup cost estimates range from $100 million to $1 billion.

Fuel Pipelines. The County’s El Toro Airport plan never accounted for the construction and reconstruction of huge pipelines to bring millions of gallons of jet fuel to El Toro International Airport every day. The cost will probably reach into the hundreds of millions of dollars.

Unfunded Legal Liability. County officials make no allowance whatsoever for the lawsuits which business owners and residents will surely bring to recover for property damage and the loss of “quiet enjoyment” caused by aircraft noise from El Toro. If just 50,000 homeowners in Orange, Tustin, Irvine, and affected South County com-munities recover $20,000 each, the cost to all County taxpayers will be $1 billion.

Karen Byers, Project 99’s Director of Communications and a professor of strategic business planning, summed up the research on El Toro’s costs this way: “The true cost to build El Toro International Airport will be at least $5 billion, and it could easily reach $8 billion to $10 billion.” Byers added, “On this issue, as with so many others, North County and South County residents are united. As taxpayers and as citizens, we’re all in this together.”

There they go again . . . lying by the numbers. According to the County MCAS El Toro Community Reuse Plan, Table 4.3, the total cost to build El Toro International Airport — with more than 90 passenger gates for 38 million annual passengers — would be just $1.61 billion. Once this “big lie” is set aside and honest cost projections are inserted for the passenger terminal, off-site roads, and runway improvements at El Toro, it’s plain that El Toro International Airport will cost well over $5 billion . . . more than three times as much as County officials claim.

Project ’99 Newsletter Director of Communications, Karen Byers Director of Media, Alan Ellstrand

Project ’99 • PO Box 252 • Irvine CA 92650 • Phone (714) 559-5423

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