Project '99 Newsletter, January 1998

A Note from Larry Agran Chair of Project ’99

Dear Friend of Project 99:

Best wishes for 1998!

Instead of our regular newsletter, we’ve decided to begin this new year by posting a special Project 99 publication.

On Sunday, December 14, 1997, the Commentary section of the Orange County Register featuring an article that I wrote in which I argued for the non-aviation reuse of El Toro (and against the proposed airport option). That article follows.

We take this opportunity to thank the Register’s staff for devoting time and valuable newspaper space to a hard-hitting debate on the key issues of the El Toro controversy. Project 99 was founded on the belief that over the long haul good information and good arguments will prevail over bad information and bad arguments. That’s why we remain confident that with continued hard work, we will defeat the County’s El Toro International Airport Plan and replace it with a Citizens’ Non-Aviation Reuse Plan that is environmentally and economically superior.

Sincerely,

Larry Agran

P.S. We’ll resume our regular newsletter format next month — with stories about the County’s outrageous El Toro air cargo proposal and an update on publication of our own Project 99 non-aviation reuse study, A Real Choice For A Better Future.

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Orange County Register, December 14, 1997

The best non-aviation uses are incompatible with a commercial airport by Larry Agran

In November 1994, Orange County voters were summoned to the ballot box to vote “yes” or “no” on Measure A, an initiative to have the county build an international airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station. Voters faced an odd choice — in fact, a false choice: Vote for a commercial airport at El Toro, or nothing.

By the narrowest of margins — 51 percent to 49 percent — the voters said they preferred an airport to nothing. Since then, a majority of county supervisors (now a 3-to-2 majority), spurred by a powerful county staff, have been spending millions of taxpayer dollars to plan and promote a huge commercial airport at El Toro.

Make no mistake about it: The ballot box can be a useful instrument for community planning, but only when real choices are offered. In the case of El Toro, a real choice would put two very different reuse plans on the ballot, side-by-side. Then, with accurate information about costs and benefits, voters could make an informed choice: A new airport the size of San Francisco International? Or, a non-aviation, mixed-use plan at El Toro that would invigorate all of Orange County?

So far, the county government has badly botched the reuse planning process. Only now, four years after the federal government announced the 1999 closure of El Toro, are Orange County citizens learning about non-aviation reuse possibilities for the 4,700-acre El Toro base. These possibilities, embodied in a master plan, would accommodate a wide range of mixed uses that are economically productive and also protective of the environment.

However, they are basically incompatible with an airport. What might be included in a creative non-aviation reuse plan for El Toro? Imagine the 7.1-square-mile El Toro Base (larger than the entire city of Laguna Hills) redeveloped around a 1,500-acre central park, similar to San Diego’s magnificent Balboa Park, with museums, a major library, an arboretum, veterans’ memorial gardens and vast wildlife and native habitat preserves. Imagine public and private colleges and modern learning centers; an arts and entertainment center in partnership with a major motion picture and television studio; and sports and recreation facilities, including a stadium, a tennis center and world-class golf courses.

Imagine an expansion of the Irvine Company’s Spectrum development, providing high-paying jobs for thousands of “knowledge workers” in premiere research and technology parks.

Imagine a pedestrian-friendly downtown or Orange County MetroCenter with high-rise luxury apartments and condominiums above street-level stores, restaurants, and offices.

Imagine the diverse elements of the El Toro non-aviation reuse plan tied together by a light-rail system, perhaps a monorail, that reduces automobile traffic and is linked to the already-operational El Toro/Irvine train station.

All this is possible. In fact, a legitimate county planning process long ago should have recognized the environmental and economic superiority of a non-aviation reuse plan for El Toro. But county officials wouldn’t hear of it. Instead, they have put reason aside; they’ve become hucksters for El Toro International Airport even though their airport plan suffers from the “four U’s” — it’s unneeded, unwanted, unworkable and unaffordable.

Unneeded. El Toro International Airport is a “solution” for a problem that doesn’t exist. Since 1994, airport proponents have claimed that Orange County has run out of airport capacity. This is simply untrue. John Wayne Airport, with its beautiful passenger terminal, operates at less than 50 percent of its present physical capacity. Moreover, Orange County air travelers frequently use Long Beach and Ontario Airports. And, of course, LAX, less than an hour’s drive, is about to undertake a massive 50 percent expansion. With all the real problems we face in Orange County — crime, traffic, inadequate schools — this is no time to fall for the goofy notion that we’re somehow “airport-deprived.”

Unwanted. Yes, in 1994 a countywide initiative favoring a commercial airport at El Toro was approved by a razor-thin 51 percent to 49 percent vote. And, yes, in 1996 an attempt to repeal Measure A went down to defeat, 60 percent to 40 percent. But recent public opinion polls show that most residents oppose an airport at El Toro. The 1997 Annual Orange County Survey found that four in 10 residents are in favor of turning the military base into a commercial airport, while 48 percent are opposed. About one in 10 are undecided. North County residents favor the airport by a slight margin (46 percent to 41 percent), while two in three South County residents oppose having a new commercial airport near their communities. With public opinion so sharply divided, a major base-closure and reuse decision shouldn’t rely on a momentary majority.

In fact, federal law and policy requires a careful process that builds consensus and pays special attention to the interests of residents living closest to a military base. In the case of El Toro, this means paying attention to communities such as Irvine, Lake Forest, Laguna Hills, Mission Viejo and Dana Point, where majorities of 70 percent to 90 percent are consistently opposed to El Toro International Airport, according to voting and polling trends.

It also means paying attention to the business community, especially the high-tech business leaders in the Irvine Spectrum. Top executives from Advanced Logic Research, Rainbow Technologies, Kofax Image Products and Western Digital tell us in no uncertain terms that El Toro International Airport will cause an intolerable work environment that will drive away knowledge workers and kill new business development.

Unworkable. In 1994, Measure A proponents trumpeted El Toro as a “turnkey” airport where runways and flight patterns used by the military would be just fine for huge commercial airliners. We now know that was all nonsense. El Toro’s runways are simply too short for international commercial flights. It’s a simple case of physics. Because of El Toro’s limited 10,000-foot runways, large aircraft with the range to reach the Far East or Europe can’t carry enough fuel, passengers and cargo to make the trip economically viable — and still be able to safely abort a takeoff in the event of an emergency.

Moreover, the county proposes that nearly all takeoffs will be to the north over Irvine, Tustin, Villa Park, Orange and Fullerton and to the east over Lake Forest and Mission Viejo. The problem? The FAA almost certainly will not permit these proposed takeoff patterns — the runways have steep uphill gradients, dangerous tailwinds, and point toward the Santa Ana Mountains.

The nation’s two airline pilot organizations, the Air Line Pilots Assn. and the Allied Pilots Assn., have already condemned the plan as unsafe and unrealistic. A “turnkey” international airport at El Toro was — and is — a lie.

Unaffordable. Pay attention to these numbers: It took more than $5 billion to build Denver International Airport. Simply to expand LAX is going to cost $12 billion. Yet county planners tell us that they can build a state-of-the-art international airport at El Toro for just $1.6 billion. This is fiscal fraud.

County cost figures underestimate the price of a passenger terminal alone by at least $1 billion. If you read the county’s 1996 MCAS Community Reuse Plan, it says a terminal complex, with 90 gates, can be built for $987.4 million. However, John Wayne Airport’s passenger terminal is just 14 gates and it cost more than $300 million in the mid-1980s.

County figures don’t include at least $2 billion to $3 billion for bridges, underpasses and offsite freeway and road costs that come with an airport. County planners didn’t even include the costs of securing pipelines necessary to bring millions of gallons of aviation fuel to El Toro daily. And then there’s the unfunded liability for private property losses — the claims that residents and businesses alike will make for noise damage and diminished property values.

The true cost of an airport? At least $5 billion to $10 billion. Airline executives understand this. That’s why, according to county documents produced in response to a state Public Records Act request, not one airline or air cargo carrier has indicated interest in an airport at El Toro.

Here’s a prediction: Within three years, the residents of Orange County — north, central and south — will demand that detailed plans for El Toro be placed on the ballot and reconsidered in light of new information unavailable in 1994 and 1996. But this time voters will insist on a real choice — a choice between a hopelessly flawed plan for El Toro International Airport and a Non-Aviation Reuse Plan that promises far greater economic and environmental security for Orange County in the 21st century.

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Project ’99 is a special project of the Tides Center, a duly registered public charity. Donations to Project ’99/Tides Center are tax-deductible to the extent permitted by law.

Project ’99 Newsletter Director of Communications, Karen Byers Director of Media, Alan Ellstrand

Project ’99 • PO Box 252 • Irvine CA 92650 • Phone (714) 559-5423