About The Survey

This is a report on the results of a survey of 600 registered voters completed in Orange County, California. The survey was in the field December 3-8, 1997 and has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.

Issue Environment

Education, crime and pocketbook issues form the issue agenda (not solving the area’s airport and air transportation problems).

Twenty-eight percent of the voters name improving public education as the top priority. Education concerns are followed by public safety concerns (20%) and pocketbook concerns (spending 10%) and taxes (6%).

Controlling growth and development measured ten percent.

Solving the area’s air transportation problems (6%) was tied for the least important priority.

This survey shows there is little public mandate for airport issues.

Approval of the Board is Mixed

Those who approve of the Orange County Board of Supervisors outnumber those who disapprove 38%-28%, with one out of three having no opinion (34%).

The Board’s Margins Flip When it Comes to El Toro Reuse

Although voters approve of the Board overall by a ten-point margin, they disapprove of the way it has handled the El Toro reuse by a larger (30%-48%) margin. Intensity is the key measurement here -- those who strongly disapprove outnumber those who strongly approve by a 33%-13% margin.

Converting El Toro Into An Airport Is On Very Shaky Ground

Orange County voters disapprove of converting El Toro into an international commercial airport by a 43%-51% margin. Importantly, voters are EXTREMELY polarized -- only six percent are undecided.

Again, intensity is on the side of those who oppose the airport. Those who strongly oppose outnumber those who strongly support by a 41%-25% margin.

After hearing more about the issue -- both positive and negative -- voters move to 54% in opposition and only 39% in support.

Why Oppose?

Those who oppose converting El Toro cite the following reasons:

1. Environmental
2. Quality of life
3. Public safety

Why Support?

El Toro airport supporters do so because:

1. They are travelers and believe John Wayne is too small and needs to be expanded
2. They live close to John Wayne and believe John Wayne is poorly located
3. Building a new airport would create jobs

Responses to messages help explain opposition.

* Voters strongly agree that there are better uses for El Toro (52% strongly agree)

*The county should spend its money on other problems (51%)

*Converting El Toro would cause traffic congestion (49%) and noise pollution (46%)

*There are already enough airports (45% strongly agree)

*It would hurt the surrounding communities (42%)

A number of alternative uses for El Toro receive higher support than the airport.

*Converting the air station into an education complex is supported 73%-24%

*Converting the air station into a community recreation area receives similar levels (73%-24%) of support

*The “high tech” center receives strong support as well (72%-24%)

Key Concerns About Conversion

1. Safety

2. Cost overruns

3. Public not allowed voice

Key Messages in Support of Conversion

*Jobs

*Economic development

Voices: Citizen groups, former FAA officials and local city councils are the most credible spokespersons against the airport.

*About seven in ten (68%) believe citizen groups opposed to an international airport are very or somewhat credible

*About the same number (67%) view current and former FAA officials as credible

*65% view mayors and city council members as credible