Example Image   Aviation Forecasts are inaccurate

Historically, SCAG has forecasted a requirement for one more airport than was actually needed.

SCAG forecasts assume constant growth without setbacks for natural disasters - SARS, flu epedemics, earthquakes, etc. - or political/economic setbacks - recessions, terrorist attacks, war, etc.  The forecasts repeatedly indicate demand for at least one more airport than is needed. Existing airports absorb the actual growth through a combination of larger aircraft, improved air traffic systems and increased capacity utilization.

Orange County Business Journal, May 27, 1996
"Tempest in an airport"

"The issue centers on estimates on how many people will want to fly out of Orange County in the year 2020, which is the modern-day equivalent of guessing how many angels can dance on the head of a pin. To give you an idea of how imprecise a science this is, back in 1980, SCAG projected that flight demand in Southern California would reach 109 million passengers by the year 1995. SCAG was only too high by about 36 million passengers, or about half."

SCAG region forecasts
What was forecasted? When was the forecast made? Forecast for what year? Forecasted
Million Annual Passengers (MAP) 
Actual Results for the year
(MAP)
Forecasting Error
(MAP)
Aviation Demand  (1) 1982 1995 88 to 110 
74 
14 to 36 
overstated
Predicted Shortfall in Capacity (1) 1982 1995 "up to 35" 
 0  (4)
35 
overstated









Aviation Demand  (2) 1990 2000 93 (2)
88  (3)
5 to 6 
overstated
Airport Capacity  (2) 1990 2000 63 (2)
88  (3)
25 
understated
Predicted Shortfall in Capacity  (2) 1990 2000 30 (2)
 0  (4)
30 
overstated









Aviation Demand  (5)
 2001
 2005
 101.5 (5)
88.3
13 overstated

(1) SCAG June 1982 Southern California Aviation System Study, Supplemental Draft EIR and Technical Report. Demand for the SCAG region - LA, Orange, San Bernadino, Riverside and Ventura Counties.

"By 1995, the demand for air travel is projected to range from a minimum of 88.4 million annual passengers (MAP) to a maximum of 109.9 MAP in the SCAG region (including connecting passengers).  Thus even if existing airports expand to the maximum constrained levels and Palmdale Airport becomes operational, a significant shortfall in capacity - up to 35 MAP - will result." - Page 6 of Supplemental Technical Report.
(2) LA Times, August 26, 1990 based on SCAG, "A Traffic Jam Up There Too"
"Without major expansion and improvement projects, Los Angeles International, Ontario, Burbank, John Wayne and Long Beach airports will be able to serve a combined total of about 63 million passengers annually by the year 2000."

"But by then, public demand for airplane seats at those five airports will have surged to 93 million, leaving 30 million would-be travelers essentially out of luck."

(3) Traffic handled by the regional airports in 2000 actually was 88.5 million rather than the predicted 63 million. We have yet to find the 30 million who were "out of luck".

(4) Existing airports absorbed the demand through a combination of larger aircraft, improved air traffic systems, increased capacity utilization and other means.  Palmdale Airport was not required.

(5) SCAG's Regional Transportation Plan for 2001 predicted that aviation demand would increase by an average of 2.7 percent per year. At that rate, regional demand would grow from 88.5 MAP in 2000 to 101.5 MAP in 2005. Instead, demand shrank slightly to 88.3 MAP.

Hanna Hill and Nicolas Dzepina helped to research data for this report.

See our special report on SCAG's arithmetic error made when estimating 2000 actual demand.

Click here for SCAG's 1988, 2001 and the latest 2004 plan forecasts.

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Revised February 11, 2006