Now Comes the Hard Part
ORANGE COUNTY PERSPECTIVE

October 28 2001

Last week's El Toro vote by county supervisors leaves as many questions locally as answers. Proponents have paid a very high price to ensure victory in the effort to win approval for an airport plan. Now they must confront strong doubts that could affect the larger struggle over what becomes of a closed Marine air base.

The county faces significant obstacles in three general areas. These can be described roughly as follows: 1. A persistent concern voiced within the aviation establishment. 2. The hardening of public opinion in the community, with a strong core of anti-airport sentiment and a shifting and soft base of support. 3. Financial uncertainty arising in large part from airline industry concerns after the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11.

First, a few words from the professionals. The El Toro airport plan is now staked out after years of shifting plans for the size and for the relationship between El Toro and the county's existing commercial airport, John Wayne Airport. Federal Aviation Administration reservations about flight delays and crowded skies raised before the county's vote of approval last week underscored longstanding concern about the proposed flight plan. Comments of a regional administrator that the El Toro takeoff pattern was like going the wrong way on a freeway were devastating. You have to ask what's next: a mountaintop sign telling planes heading north they are going against traffic? Then there was the letter Monday from the Allied Pilots Assn., saying that planned takeoffs to the east and north would require planes to operate "at or near limits." Another group, the Air Line Pilots Assn., said last week it now supports a much different runway configuration. The FAA previously said northerly takeoffs could be done, but the pilots clearly remain nervous about such things as taking off into elevated terrain with wind gusts behind them. They don't like the idea of operating on the margin, and with the public nervous already about flying, neither will passengers.

That leads to the second point, public opinion. An overwhelming political challenge awaits on this front within Orange County. Survey after survey has shown a solid core of anti-airport sentiment coupled with generally soft pockets of pro-airport sentiment. The latter group has concerns tied to the questions about airport design and runway configuration that are advanced by the aviation professionals. Newport Beach remains the county's strong pro-airport country, a sentiment nourished by concern that John Wayne Airport may expand if El Toro isn't built.

But beyond that, this is a debate in which people no longer are on a learning curve. There seems to have been very little movement in support. It will be a long, hard journey for the proponents to win over public opinion when general uncertainty about airport design and operations is added to the hard block of South County residents who want no airport.

Finally, the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 have changed the economics of the county's aviation landscape along with all the other fallout they have produced in the airline industry. They did give the pro-airport side one argument: that runways ripped up in the midst of a major population area will be lost forever in an emergency if the park plan prevails as the base reuse choice. But there are new concerns. John Wayne Airport, long a cash cow for El Toro planning, has been losing revenue, although passengers have been coming back after a big initial loss.

People remain concerned about flying, perhaps considering fewer nonessential trips. LAX has experienced a drop in revenue. Wall Street placed major airports on watch lists for possible downgrading of their credit ratings. All of this presents a wild card for financing a new airport and for making it an economic success. The airlines long have said theywon't support two Orange County airports anyway.

Last week's vote represented the achievement of a long-sought objective. Now the hard part starts, with the prospect of a ballot initiative in March. This may be the last chance to really make a credible case.