AIR TRANSPORTATION IN THE LOS ANGELES REGION
Los Angeles World Airways
February 28, 2000

Excerpts (Pg. numbers from the report)
Website comments in italics.

DEMAND:

• “Airlines decide where they will supply service on the basis of demand.  The government cannot mandate service at a particular airport.”  (Pg. 2)

• “Every commercial airport has a catchment area, the area of population that is closest to the airport compared to any alternative airport.”  (Pg. 2)  The geographic area in which an airport has a location advantage – in other words, the area for which it is the closest and therefore the most convenient airport – is referred to as a catchment area.”  (Pg. 18)

• John Wayne’s “catchment area is only 3.7 MAP. Approximately 80 percent of the passengers within 60 minutes of John Wayne are closer to either Long Beach or Ontario airports.”  (Pg. 27)

• “John Wayne Airport’s future demand is forecast to be between 7 to 12 MAP in the 2015 to 2020 timeframe.”  (Pg. 46)

• Orange County demand in 1994 was 7.4 MAP for “Domestic Origin and Destination Passengers” and is projected to grow to 12.3 MAP in 2015.  Therefore domestic demand is projected to grow by only 4.9 MAP over a 21-year timespan. (Table 9, Pg. 41, “1994 and 2015 Geographic Distribution of Passengers and Demographic Data”)

• Orange County’s Percent of Total Domestic demand is expected to decrease from 16.2% to 14.6% over the same 21-year period. (Table 9, Pg. 41, “1994 and 2015 Geographic Distribution of Passengers and Demographic Data”)

County plans for El Toro depend on the importing of passengers from other counties and from other better situated airports.

TWO ORANGE COUNTY AIRPORTS:

• “Airlines may be reluctant to shift existing service from John Wayne until El Toro has a well-established market, and may be concerned that by providing service at both airports they will be diluting rather than expanding their market share… El Toro might experience greater success with the closure of John Wayne Airport.”  (Pg. 47)

• Los Angeles Region Airport System Scenario 1 has El Toro at 28.75 MAP and John Wayne closed.  Scenario 2 has No El Toro and John Wayne at 11.6 MAP.  (Pg. 57, Table 10, 2015 Passenger Activity Forecast)

INTERNATIONAL SERVICE:

• “For the foreseeable future, LAX is the only airport capable of being the region’s international gateway.”  (Pg. 3)

• “The El Toro Master Plan suggests that the airport could accommodate 23.4 MAP in 2015 and 28.8 MAP in 2020.  This forecast includes 5.6 Map of international activity in 2015 and 8.2 MAP in 2020.”  (Pg. 46)

• “El Toro will be competing for international passengers not only with LAX but with other gateways to Asia.  It will be at a competitive disadvantage to other major gateways that have greater local passenger base and domestic passenger feed.  Its strongest international market is likely to be direct service to Canada and Mexico.”  (Pg. 47)

• “The future of El Toro is uncertain, even if it is developed as proposed in the El Toro Master Plan, its ability to serve a significant share of international demand is questionable.”  (Pg. 50)

CARGO:

• “The region has two express package hubs: Ontario’s UPS hub and LAX’s FedEx hub.”  (Pg. 26)

• “Palmdale Regional Airport, San Bernadino International Airport, March Inland Port and Southern California Logistics Airport have almost unlimited airside capacity for air cargo and should be primary candidates for such activity.”  (Pg. 42)

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This page last updated on May 11, 2000.